SEC Weekend Preview
A Bounce-Back Weekend Before Conference Play
This weekend should be a get-right weekend for the SEC.
There were some strange midweek results across the conference — most notably LSU dropping two midweek games — and a couple of other SEC clubs took unexpected losses as well. But as we head into the final weekend before conference play, it’s not surprising to see schedules lined up for most teams to regain momentum.
In fact, almost every SEC team is facing an opponent with a losing record this weekend. The only matchups against teams above .500 come from Auburn hosting Winthrop (10–2), Florida hosting High Point (7–6), Alabama hosting North Florida (8–6), and Texas hosting South Carolina Upstate (7–7).
Everyone else is playing a team well under .500.
Three series actually began on Thursday, and those results already set the tone for the weekend.
Thursday Night Results
Missouri kicked off the weekend by edging UIC 9–8 in a back-and-forth game. The Tigers did not start Javyn Pimentel, so it’s likely he’ll take the ball Friday night.
Oklahoma opened its series with a 2–1 win over Santa Clara, and once again Cam Johnson looked dominant. The Oklahoma ace went 5⅓ innings, allowing just two hits and one unearned run while striking out seven. I watched the game back, and outside of one inning in the fourth where a couple runners reached base, he cruised through the lineup. One of his two walks was highly questionable as well. Johnson continues to look every bit like one of the premier starters in the country. LJ Mercurius and Cord Rager look to follow him in what should be another sweep going into SEC play.
Mississippi State also handled business Thursday night, defeating Lipscomb 8–3 behind another strong outing from Ryan McPherson. The Bulldogs’ Friday starter threw six innings, allowing five hits, one earned run, one walk, and eight strikeouts, continuing what has been a very impressive start to the season. Tomas Valincius and Duke Stone are electric arms that shouldn’t have too much trouble following him up.
Arkansas vs. Stetson
Arkansas hosts Stetson, and while the Hatters can swing the bat a bit, the Razorbacks should still take the series at least two games to one.
This weekend is particularly important for Gabe Gaeckle, who will look to bounce back after a tough outing last Friday. Arkansas will also rely on Hunter Dietz to continue his strong form and Colin Fisher to maintain his consistency.
If Gaeckle struggles again, it will be interesting to see if Dave Van Horn considers adjusting the rotation — potentially moving Fisher into the Friday role and sliding Gaeckle back to Saturday. That’s something to watch.
LSU vs. Sacramento State
LSU returns home after dropping two midweek games, and while Sacramento State comes in at 5–8, this series may not be as easy as it appears.
Sacramento State has quietly built a solid pitching staff that limits walks and keeps games under control. LSU’s offense has been inconsistent so far, so the Tigers’ pitching may again need to carry the load.
If the bats finally break out, however, it would be a very encouraging sign for Jay Johnson’s club heading into SEC play.
Alabama vs. North Florida
Alabama gets one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend against North Florida (8–6).
North Florida can hit, posting a .285 team batting average, and their pitching staff overall owns a sub-4.00 ERA. However, their starters have struggled, which suggests Alabama’s key to the series will be jumping on starting pitching early.
If the Crimson Tide can do that, they should control the weekend. If not, the games could be closer than expected.
Georgia vs. Queens
Georgia hosts Queens (4–8) and should take care of business.
The Bulldogs’ offense has been strong, and this series presents an opportunity for the starting rotation to continue building momentum. I’m particularly interested in seeing Joey Volchko on Friday night, as well as Caden Aoki, who has quietly emerged as an intriguing development piece for Georgia’s staff despite not having overpowering velocity.
South Carolina vs. Princeton
South Carolina welcomes Princeton, a program that traditionally plays solid baseball but has struggled this season.
The Tigers are currently batting under .200 as a team, and their pitching numbers have also been rough. South Carolina should be in a position to control this series comfortably.
Texas A&M vs. Oakland
Texas A&M hosts Oakland, and anything short of a sweep would be a disappointment for the Aggies.
Oakland has battled injuries and a difficult early schedule and currently carries a team ERA over 10. One bright spot to watch for Oakland is freshman Ben Green, who threw well against Georgia last weekend and may give the Aggies a tougher test on Sunday.
Still, Texas A&M should handle this series.
Ole Miss vs. Evansville
Ole Miss hosts Evansville, whose offensive and pitching numbers both paint a difficult picture.
Evansville enters the weekend batting under .200 with a team ERA approaching 7.00, so Ole Miss should have an opportunity to put together a strong weekend and build momentum before conference play begins.
Kentucky vs. The Citadel
Kentucky hosts The Citadel, whose pitching staff has actually performed reasonably well with a team ERA under 4.00.
However, The Citadel offense is struggling, batting around .205, which plays directly into Kentucky’s strength: pitching. The Wildcats’ staff has been dominant so far this season.
With Tyler Bell nearing a return, there could also be some renewed energy around the lineup. Kentucky should take at least two of three.
Vanderbilt vs. North Dakota State
Vanderbilt badly needs a bounce-back weekend.
The Commodores struggled last weekend and also dropped a midweek game to Central Arkansas before rebounding with a 4–1 win over Troy on Wednesday.
The big story this weekend is the absence of Austin Nye, who exited his last start with what appears to be biceps tendonitis or inflammation. Early reports suggest it’s not a major injury, but it will be something to monitor.
Replacing him in the rotation is Wyatt Nadeau, a tall freshman right-hander who throws 94–96 mph, mixes a big 80 mph curveball, and features a sharp 88–90 gyro slider that generated swings and misses against Arizona last weekend.
North Dakota State enters the series 1–11, so this will be a good opportunity to see how Nadeau handles his first weekend start.
Florida vs. High Point
Florida hosts High Point (7–6), one of the better opponents on the SEC schedule this weekend.
High Point hits reasonably well with a .265 team batting average, so they may be competitive at times, but Florida is playing excellent baseball right now and should control the series.
Tennessee vs. Wright State
Tennessee hosts Wright State, a team with some history in Knoxville after their strong showing in the 2021 regional.
Wright State has a talented Friday starter in Cam Allen, but he’s had a rough start to the season and appears to be dealing with injuries. If he’s not at full strength, Tennessee’s pitching staff should give the Volunteers a major advantage.
Expect Tennessee to take care of business at home.
Auburn vs. Winthrop
One of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend might be Auburn hosting Winthrop (10–2).
Winthrop’s numbers are impressive: a 3.45 team ERA, strong strike-throwing ability with very few walks, and a .275 team batting average. They don’t hit for much power, but they consistently put the ball in play.
That combination could make this a low-scoring, competitive series, especially since Auburn’s pitching staff has also been excellent.
Auburn should win the series, but this is one where dropping a game wouldn’t be surprising.
Texas vs. South Carolina Upstate
Texas hosts South Carolina Upstate (7–7), a team that can swing the bat with a .296 team average.
However, the pitching staff has struggled, posting a team ERA above 6.00, which could lead to a high-scoring weekend for the Longhorns.
Texas’ pitching staff has been outstanding so far, so expect them to control this series.
Final Thoughts
Heading into the final weekend before conference play, this is a weekend where the SEC should largely take care of business.
Most teams are facing opponents with losing records, and the expectation should be sweeps across much of the league.
The few exceptions where things could get interesting:
Auburn vs. Winthrop
Alabama vs. North Florida
Arkansas vs. Stetson
LSU vs. Sacramento State
Otherwise, the SEC should use this weekend to build momentum before conference play begins next week.