This weekend feels like one of those checkpoints in the SEC season where you start learning a lot more about who teams really are.
Some clubs are hot. Some are trying to bounce back. Some are still stuck in that in-between space where you can see the talent, but you still do not fully trust what is going to show up from game to game.
That is what makes this weekend so interesting.
There are a handful of series here where the biggest question is simple: which version of each team shows up? And like always in this league, so much of it starts with the starting pitching.
Here is how I see the weekend.
#5 Georgia at #4 Mississippi State
This is one of the best series of the weekend.
You have elite on elite here, and that is what makes it so much fun. Mississippi State has been one of the best offensive teams in the league, and Georgia is right there with them, especially when you look at the power numbers.
So for me, the first question is which offense wins out.
Then it comes back to the same thing it has for Georgia most of the year: which Joey Volchko do we get? He has allowed too many base runners at times, whether it is through hits or walks, and that becomes a real issue against a lineup like Mississippi State. Then with Dylan Vigue, we have seen both versions. We have seen him settle in and give length, and we have also seen him used a little more creatively when Georgia is chasing a weekend.
On the Mississippi State side, I still think they have the edge in the starting pitching department over the course of the series. When you combine that with the home field advantage at Dudy Noble, it gives them the slight lean for me.
Prediction: Mississippi State takes the series
LSU at Tennessee
Before the season, this looked like one of the headline series in the league.
It still matters a ton, but now it feels massive for a different reason. Both teams need it.
Tennessee is coming off getting swept by Vanderbilt in three straight walk-offs. LSU took two of three from Kentucky, but even that did not feel clean. It still feels like everything right now is hard for LSU, and Tennessee has had the same issue in a different way. When they pitch well, they do not swing it. When they swing it, they do not pitch. It is always something.
For me, this weekend comes down to Tennessee’s pitching staff against the LSU bats. Tennessee’s strength right now is still on the mound, but LSU does have the edge for me at the top of the rotation with the way Casan Evans and William Schmidt are throwing. Evans has had some command issues, but we have also seen flashes of a real Friday night guy, and the way he settled in recently mattered to me.
I also still like Gavin Guidry in that Sunday role for LSU. It did not work perfectly the first time, but I still like the idea.
I am a little nervous about LSU’s defense on the road in that ballpark, especially with how the ball can fly there. But overall, I think LSU has a little bit of a talent edge and a little more experience in the dugout, and I think they grind this one out.
Prediction: LSU takes 2 of 3
Ole Miss at #21 Florida
This is one of the tougher ones to trust because Florida has been such a swinging pendulum all year.
One week they look like they can beat anybody. The next week they fall flat. So the first question here is obvious: which Florida team shows up?
Then Ole Miss throws a little wrinkle into it with the rotation. They go with Taylor Rabe in game one, then Hunter Elliott, then Cade Townsend. That changed the way I looked at the series because it really does feel like a bit of a chess match. If you are Ole Miss, you may be looking at Liam Peterson in game one and saying, if he is on, it may not matter who we throw. So just keep it close, do not burn too many arms, and then attack the back half with Elliott and Townsend.
Oh, and Taylor Rabe is really good too — he might have some of the best pure stuff in the SEC and last weekend he threw 70+ pitches out of the pen, so it wouldn’t be crazy to see him go five plus and 80 pitches.
I actually kind of like that setup for Ole Miss.
They can really swing it, they have hit a lot of home runs, and if Liam Peterson has any of the command issues that have popped up at times, this could get weird for Florida in a hurry. Florida has enough arms to keep games alive even if Peterson is off, but this still feels like one of those weekends where Ole Miss can take advantage of the uncertainty.
Prediction: Ole Miss takes 2 of 3
Vanderbilt at #20 Texas A&M
This feels like one of the more important statement series of the weekend.
Both teams are hot, but both teams have also been a little bit Jekyll and Hyde this year, which is why it is hard to get a real read on them.
With Vanderbilt, the biggest question is still which Connor Fennell shows up. We have seen him look dominant, and we have also seen him get hit. So when you are facing a Texas A&M offense like this, that matters.
Because Texas A&M can really swing it.
At the same time, Vanderbilt’s offense has turned into one of the more dangerous ones in the league too, and that is what makes this series feel like it could turn into a shootout. Texas A&M throws to contact, does not walk many guys, and makes you earn it. That is why I still give Shane Sdao a lot of credit, even with the ERA being what it is.
The other factor here is Vanderbilt away from Nashville. They have really struggled on the road, and that matters in a series like this.
So while I think Vanderbilt will score, I trust Texas A&M a little more at home and I think this is the kind of weekend where we start talking more seriously about them if they win it.
Prediction: Texas A&M takes 2 of 3
#2 Texas at South Carolina
I do not think there is a complicated way to frame this one.
For South Carolina to have any chance, it starts with the pitching.
Josh Gunther has to look like the version of himself that showed up against Clemson and Florida. Amp Phillips has to be electric. Brandon Stone has to continue being solid. They have to find a way to keep the game tight because Texas is going to make life hard enough on South Carolina offensively as it is.
That is really the issue.
Texas is likely going to shut down South Carolina’s offense, so South Carolina’s best path is to score early somehow, keep games close, and hope the environment plays a role. But even then, it is hard to lean that way because Texas would really have to mess this up to lose the series.
South Carolina also switched things around with Alex Valentin getting game one, then Gunther, then Phillips, so maybe they are just throwing different looks at Texas and seeing what sticks.
But overall, this feels pretty straightforward to me.
Prediction: Texas sweeps
Missouri at #24 Kentucky
I think Kentucky takes care of business here, but there are still a couple things I am watching.
For Kentucky, the concern remains the starting pitching behind Jaxon Jelkin. You feel good about him, but after that it gets a little shaky. Ben Cleaver has not really gone deep into games, and Nate Harris has been up and down, so there is still some uncertainty once you get beyond that first spot.
On the other side, one of the things I have liked most about Missouri this year has actually been the starting pitching. That is the one area where I think they can stay competitive in this series.
Kentucky is a scrappy team. They feed off momentum and pressure. But if Missouri’s starters can take that away early, that is how they could steal a game.
That said, I have been high on Kentucky because I think they are more veteran and they know how to win baseball games, especially at home. So I think they handle the series, even if Missouri has enough on the mound to maybe make one game uncomfortable.
Prediction: Kentucky takes the series, likely a sweep, but Missouri could sneak one
#17 Alabama at #11 Oklahoma
This is a really tough series to pick because Alabama is playing really good baseball right now.
They have swept their last two SEC weekends after getting swept in the opening weekend, and Tyler Fay and Zane Adams are pitching as well as any one-two combo in the country right now. Oh and there’s a kid named Justin Lebron who is an above average player (that’s sarcasm since he is likely number one or two in the MLB Draft in a few months, for people reading fast).
That is what makes this difficult.
But there are still enough concerns for me to lean Oklahoma. Alabama is just 3-5 on the road, and now they are going into an Oklahoma team that has been really good at home. Then when you add in Alabama’s defensive issues, that becomes an even bigger factor against a team like Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is patient, athletic, and they are going to force you to play clean baseball. They manufacture runs, steal bases, bunt, and pressure you. If Alabama is loose defensively at all, Oklahoma is the kind of team that can make that snowball.
Then the other big question here is Cam Johnson. How does he bounce back, and what does he look like following up his impressive outing against Texas?
Overall, I just believe in Oklahoma as a whole at home in this matchup.
Prediction: Oklahoma takes 2 of 3
#17 Arkansas at #18 Auburn
This feels like a get-right weekend for Auburn.
Both teams are kind of limping into it, but I have had more questions about Arkansas recently, especially offensively and especially when it comes to Gabe Gackle on Friday night. I have said before that I think he might be better served as a Saturday starter, with Colin Fisher sliding into the Friday night role.
That is still part of how I see this series.
For me, one of the swing factors is simply which Gabe Gackle shows up. On the other side, I think Auburn has the edge in the starting pitching department, and that matters a lot here.
Then you add in the home field factor. Auburn has protected home field well, and Arkansas has been fine but not dominant on the road.
The other interesting wrinkle is Auburn moving Andreas Alvarez into the Thursday night role. When I went back and watched him, the stuff matched the numbers. He has been really good in midweek competition, including a 10-strikeout performance against Georgia Tech, so even though he has not done it yet against an SEC lineup, he has faced high-level talent and looked the part.
That, along with Auburn’s edge on the mound as a whole, gives them the lean for me.
Prediction: Auburn takes 2 of 3
Weekend Picks
Mississippi State over Georgia
LSU over Tennessee
Ole Miss over Florida
Texas A&M over Vanderbilt
Texas over South Carolina
Kentucky over Missouri
Oklahoma over Alabama
Auburn over Arkansas
This weekend feels like one of those turning points where separation in the SEC really starts to happen. The teams that handle their business now are the ones that put themselves in position later in the year. And with this many tight matchups, we should learn a lot about who’s for real and who still has questions to answer.