We’re getting to the point in the SEC season where things start to become a little more clear.
We’re about halfway through the conference slate after this weekend, and this is where you really start to figure out who’s for real, who’s still figuring it out, and who’s going to be in the mix when it comes to hosting and postseason play.
There are a couple Thursday starts again this weekend, and a lot of really telling matchups across the board.
Here’s how I see it.
#16 Oklahoma at Vanderbilt
This is a big one for me.
I’ve been high on both of these teams at different points this year, but more recently I’ve been leaning Oklahoma — at least until the last couple weeks.
Now I’m starting to have some questions again, especially with LJ Mercurius at the top of the rotation. Cam Johnson has righted the ship the last two weekends, so I’m looking for that to continue, but LJ has had some inconsistencies.
On the other side, Vanderbilt’s offense has been one of the better ones in the league, and with the fences coming in and the way they play at home, that matters. They’ve also won seven of their last SEC games at home in walk-off fashion, so that environment is real.
For me, I need to see Oklahoma go on the road and win a series like this before I’m fully back in on them as a top 10/15 team.
Prediction: Vanderbilt takes the series
South Carolina at Missouri
This is the two basement teams going at it.
Both teams have some upside on the mound, but I think Missouri’s offense is a little better, and playing at home gives them the edge for me.
I do think South Carolina is probably the more talented team overall, and if this series were flipped and played at South Carolina, I might feel differently.
But with it being at Missouri, I lean their way.
Prediction: Missouri takes 2 of 3
Florida at #4 Georgia
This is a really good one.
Florida is coming off a solid midweek win against Florida State after getting beat two out of three at home by Ole Miss. Georgia, on the other hand, swept Mississippi State on the road and then won a 28–3 midweek game.
So Georgia is playing really well right now.
But for some reason, my gut tells me Florida takes this series.
They’re moving Aidan King to the Friday night spot and sliding Liam Peterson to Saturday, and I think that takes some pressure off Peterson and allows him to settle into what he can be.
If Aidan King continues to do what he’s been doing, that gives Florida a real shot to start the weekend strong.
I’ll be anxious to see how Georgia’s starters respond against a Florida team that’s a little banged up but still dangerous.
Prediction: Florida takes the series
Tennessee at #9 Mississippi State
I think this one comes down to offense versus pitching.
Tennessee has the edge in the starting pitching department for me with Landon Mack, Teagan Kuhns, and Evan Blanco. Mississippi State hasn’t fully locked in their rotation yet with McPherson out, although Tomas Valincius and Duke Stone have both been very solid.
After that, there are some question marks, for me.
But Tennessee’s issue is still the offense.
They’re just too inexperienced right now, and Mississippi State is the number three offense in the league.
Coming off getting swept at home last weekend, I don’t see Mississippi State dropping this one.
Prediction: Mississippi State takes at least 2 of 3
#22 Arkansas at #8 Alabama
I’ve been high on Alabama all year, and I still am.
Tyler Fay and Zane Adams give them a really strong one-two punch, and Myles Upchurch gives them a solid Sunday option, even though he’s had some command issues at times.
The offense has started to turn it on lately, and they’re playing good baseball.
On the other side, Arkansas still has some question marks for me offensively outside of Ryder Helfrick. And on the mound, Gabe Gaeckle and Hunter Dietz have big-time upside, but both have been inconsistent.
That inconsistency is what leans me toward Alabama at home.
Prediction: Alabama takes 2 of 3
Kentucky at #15 Auburn
I think Auburn is just going to be too much for Kentucky, especially at home.
Auburn’s starting rotation gives them the edge for me. On the Kentucky side, I still have some questions with Ben Cleaver and Nate Harris.
Jaxon Jelkin gives them a real chance to win game one, but after that it gets tougher.
This feels like a lower-scoring series overall, and I’d probably lean toward the under in most of these games.
But with Auburn at home and the edge on the mound, I think they take it.
Prediction: Auburn takes the series
#24 LSU at #25 Ole Miss
This is a really tough one to pick.
Both teams are very good, but neither has really played up to their full potential yet. So this weekend should tell us a lot about both.
There are real implications here in terms of hosting and positioning, so both teams should be motivated.
I give Ole Miss a slight edge in the starting rotation from a consistency standpoint.
Cade Townsend and Taylor Rabe match the upside of Casan Evans and William Schmidt, and Hunter Elliott brings experience and leadership at the top, even though he’s had some command issues.
If LSU can work counts and get Elliott deep into pitch counts, they could have success early. But overall, due to LSU’s struggles on defense and with walks and ERA, I lean Ole Miss.
Prediction: Ole Miss takes the series
#2 Texas at #18 Texas A&M
This is the series of the weekend.
It’s going to be a great one. A ton of energy, a ton of talent, and a rivalry that always brings something out of both sides.
But I think Texas is just the better team right now.
Texas A&M’s offense has been really good — near the top of the league in just about everything — but I still have some question marks about their pitching staff.
Aiden Sims has been solid, and Shane Sdao throws strikes and has real upside, but when you’re in the zone that much in SEC play, you’re going to give up hits and home runs. And against a Texas lineup like this, that becomes a problem.
Texas can match them from a talent standpoint, and I think they have the edge overall.
Prediction: Texas takes 2 of 3, with sweep potential
Weekend Outlook
This weekend should give us a lot more clarity.
We’re halfway through the SEC slate after this, and this is where you start to separate teams in terms of hosting, postseason positioning, and who’s actually built to sustain it over the long haul.
There’s still some volatility across the league, but after this weekend, we should have a much better idea of where everyone stands.