SEC Weekend Preview: 3/19-3/22
Conference play keeps rolling — and the questions are getting clearer
We’re now into the part of the season where every weekend starts to mean a little more.
Rotations are being tested. Identities are forming. And more importantly, the questions we had a few weeks ago are starting to get answered — or exposed.
This weekend gives us another full SEC slate, with a couple series starting on Thursday, and a handful of matchups that feel very telling depending on how the starting pitching shows up.
As always, it starts on Friday night — or in this case, Thursday night — with the arms.
Oklahoma at LSU
📍 Alex Box Stadium, Baton Rouge
This is one of the more interesting series of the weekend, especially because it starts on Thursday.
For me, it starts with the Friday night matchup — or Thursday night in this case — between Casan Evans and Cam Johnson.
Both guys struggled with command in their last outings, and that’s something I’m always locked in on. For Friday night starters, it’s about controlling the zone, going deep into the game, and saving your bullpen. That’s the first test right out of the gate this weekend.
If Cam Johnson bounces back and gives Oklahoma a quality start, I think Oklahoma takes this series. LSU is still trying to find itself right now.
On the other side, if Casan Evans comes out and throws the way he’s capable of — and the way Jay Johnson has backed him publicly — then I think LSU feeds off that. If he controls the game early, the crowd gets into it, and that becomes a really tough environment for Oklahoma to play in.
I don’t think it’s out of the question at all for Evans to have a big start. I think he’s very capable and just ran into some bad luck and some unfortunate situations.
But overall, I lean Oklahoma.
LSU has shown some defensive flaws — 26 errors in 22 games, third worst in the SEC — and Oklahoma is very athletic. They’re going to bunt, hit and run, steal bases, and apply pressure. That’s the kind of style that can expose defensive issues.
Prediction: Oklahoma takes the series
Kentucky at Ole Miss
📍 Oxford, MI
I give Kentucky a slight edge in this series, although playing at Ole Miss is never easy.
For Kentucky, I still have some questions about Ben Cleaver on Saturday, specifically his ability to go deep into games. That’s something I’m watching closely.
I do think Ole Miss finds a way to win Saturday, but the biggest swing factor in this series is Hunter Elliott.
What version of Hunter Elliott do we get?
Is it the guy from the past who has been a dominant SEC starter, or is it the version we’ve seen this year that has struggled with command through his first five starts?
If Elliott comes out on Thursday, throws strikes, and gives Ole Miss a quality start, I think they absolutely have a chance to win the weekend.
But overall, I think Kentucky is the better team right now.
Prediction: Kentucky takes the series
Missouri at Tennessee
📍 Tennessee
I think Tennessee wins this series, and I think they win at least two out of three — potentially all three.
Missouri does have some pieces.
Josh McDevitt on Saturday has shown some electric stuff, and Javon Pimentel on Friday has shown leadership and swing-and-miss ability. So this is not a complete walkover.
But Tennessee at home, combined with the strength of their starting rotation, is what gives me the lean here.
Over the course of a weekend, I trust Tennessee’s pitching more.
Prediction: Tennessee takes the series (potential sweep)
Florida at Alabama
📍 Alabama
Alabama is just not playing like the team I thought they were going to be.
They got swept by Kentucky, they lost a midweek game, and their starters have been up and down.
Offensively, Justin Lebron is as advertised, but he’s not getting a lot of support. If you avoid him, teams have had success against Alabama. They also lead the league in runners left on base, which tells you they’re not hitting in the clutch, and their team batting average has been a struggle overall.
On the other side, Florida is playing well.
Liam Peterson on Friday night is going to be tough to beat, and Aiden King has not given up an earned run yet this year as their Saturday starter.
Florida just feels deeper right now.
Prediction: Florida wins the series on the road
Georgia at Texas A&M
📍 Texas A&M
This is a really interesting test for both teams.
Georgia’s offense is elite — that’s clear.
But Texas A&M’s starting pitching has been a little questionable, and that’s where this gets interesting.
I still think Texas A&M takes the series, and I think it’s because their offense is elite enough to match Georgia.
At the same time, this series says a lot about Georgia.
If Georgia goes on the road and wins this series, then we really need to start having a serious conversation about them being one of the top teams in the country.
And on the flip side, if Texas A&M’s pitching can hold up against Georgia’s offense, then that tells you Texas A&M is much improved.
This is a big measuring-stick weekend for both teams.
Prediction: Texas A&M takes the series
Arkansas at South Carolina
📍 South Carolina
South Carolina is just struggling right now.
They’re banged up, they lost a midweek game to Charlotte, and offensively they have not been very potent.
They do have a guy in Josh Gunther on Friday night who is coming off a really strong start against Florida — no runs in six-plus innings — and if they can bridge to Valentin, who can give them length out of the bullpen, they could potentially steal a game.
But overall, I think Arkansas takes care of business.
This feels like a get-right weekend for Arkansas’ starting rotation.
For Gabe Gackle, who is looking to show that Friday night dominance, and for Hunter Dietz and Colin Fisher, who had some questionable starts last weekend, this is an opportunity.
I think Arkansas’ starters have success against a South Carolina offense that is not very dangerous.
Prediction: Arkansas sweeps the series
Texas at Auburn
📍 Auburn
This is the series of the weekend.
You’ve got No. 2 Texas at No. 5 Auburn, and this should be a really competitive three-game set.
Ultimately, I think Texas takes two out of three.
For me, it comes down to the eye test. I think Texas has more major league-type players in their lineup, and over the course of a three-game weekend, I think that talent shows up.
Auburn is very good. They pitch it well. But their staff is not overpowering in a way that you would call elite, high-end, big league stuff across the board.
Texas’ hitters, to me, look like future big leaguers, and I think that gives them the edge over three games.
That said, Auburn is at home, and that matters.
If this series goes into Sunday 1–1, then it gets really interesting.
You potentially get Valantis vs. Petrovic, which could be one of the best Sunday matchups in the country.
Even though Petrovic has been one of the best Sunday starters, I still give the edge to Texas.
Prediction: Texas takes 2 of 3
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
📍 Dudy Noble Field, Starkville
This is a big weekend for Mississippi State.
It’s their first home SEC weekend under Brian O’Connor at Dudy Noble Field, and that environment is going to matter.
I’ve been very high on Mississippi State’s rotation: McPherson on Friday, Valincius on Saturday, Duke Stone on Sunday.
Now they get a real test.
Vanderbilt’s offense is very dangerous. Even though they’ve been a bit of a question mark as a team overall, their bats are legit.
If Mississippi State’s starters have success this weekend against that lineup, then we’re looking at a team that needs to be seriously considered as a national championship contender.
That’s how I view this series.
I don’t know exactly which Vanderbilt team shows up, but I do think Mississippi State wins the weekend.
Prediction: Mississippi State takes at least 2 of 3
Weekend Picks
Oklahoma over LSU
Kentucky over Ole Miss
Tennessee over Missouri (potential sweep)
Florida over Alabama
Texas A&M over Georgia
Arkansas over South Carolina (sweep)
Texas over Auburn
Mississippi State over Vanderbilt