Before we get into it, a quick note — most of these series are starting Thursday this week because of the SEC Tournament schedule. And while there’s still a lot on the line, understand that everything here comes with an asterisk.
Coaches are managing rotations based on health, postseason positioning, RPI, and how they want to enter the tournament. Some guys might not pitch. Some lineups might look different. So these predictions are based on how these teams have been playing and coaching all year — but things could look completely different by first pitch. Take it all with a grain of salt.
Here’s how I see it playing out.
#12 Arkansas at Kentucky
This one scares me for Arkansas, and I say that as someone who has a lot of respect for what Dave Van Horn has built.
Arkansas is getting right at the right time of year. That’s what they do. Hunter Dietz at the front of the rotation is as dominant as anyone in the country right now — since he moved into that Friday night role he has just been locked in. And the offense is coming alive.
But Jaxon Jelkin is pitching the best baseball of his season right now in my opinion. Ben Cleaver is finally becoming what we thought he could be at the start of the year. And Kentucky has things to play for and they’re at home.
I think this is a really close series and Arkansas is playing great baseball — but I think Kentucky edges them out.
Prediction: Kentucky takes 2 of 3
#4 Georgia at #5 Auburn
This was one of the hardest picks of the week for me.
I’ve been one of Auburn’s biggest believers all year. And when I picked against them last weekend, it was purely because of the gauntlet they were running — back-to-back weekends against top five teams on the road. I thought at some point that schedule would catch up to them.
But now they’re back home. And Auburn at home is a different animal. They’ve won six straight SEC series. They play loose and confident at Plainsman Park. And while Georgia has already locked up a national seed, this weekend isn’t going to make or break either team’s seeding.
When teams have less on the line and you’re playing the home team that plays this well at home — you lean on the home team with better pitching.
Prediction: Auburn takes the series at home
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Simple one for me.
Vanderbilt plays well at home. Their stadium and their fences cater to their offensive style of play. South Carolina doesn’t have much left to play for this season. And Tim Corbin will have his guys focused and ready.
Prediction: Vanderbilt takes the series
#15 Ole Miss at #18 Alabama
Alabama is playing really well right now. The veteran one-two punch (Tyler Fay and Zane Adams) in the rotation is real, and Myles Upchurch has been terrific as a true freshman. Rob Vaughn has this team playing winning baseball.
But I think Ole Miss just has the better rotation at this point in the year. From a pure talent standpoint, their pitching staff is one of the best in the country. Hunter Elliott looked electric last weekend. Cade Townsend is in the mix, although he is starting Game 3 this weekend while Taylor Rabe is a legitimate MLB prospect as their “third” starter. And their offense has some legitimate power in that lineup.
I think Ole Miss takes care of business on the road.
Prediction: Ole Miss takes 2 of 3 at Alabama
#13 Mississippi State at #10 Texas A&M
I was going to take Texas A&M here before the news dropped.
With Aiden Sims out for the weekend, that’s a massive wrinkle. He’s been their most reliable arm all year. And on the Mississippi State side, Ryan McPherson coming back healthy is a significant boost for that rotation.
Before those two developments, A&M was my pick. After them, I’m flipping.
Prediction: Mississippi State takes 2 of 3
#19 Florida at LSU
Florida takes this one.
Kevin O’Sullivan has his guys playing the right way right now, and the Aiden King and Liam Peterson one-two punch is just too much for LSU’s offense to handle. LSU doesn’t have the starting pitching depth to win two out of three games against this Florida staff.
Now — would it surprise me if LSU steals a game? Not at all. Florida has been inconsistent all year and has a habit of finding ways to lose games they shouldn’t. LSU has some youthful energy around that program right now, and Jay Johnson is a winner. They’ll compete. But competing and winning a series are two different things.
Prediction: Florida takes 2 of 3
Missouri at #6 Texas
Texas enters this one a little banged up, so don’t be surprised if they’re resting some guys and managing their roster with one eye on the tournament.
But this is also a weekend where the Longhorns need to get right. Dylan Volantis needs to bounce back and re-establish his dominance. Ruger Riojas needs to get back to the version of himself we saw earlier in conference play. Luke Harrison needs to find his footing.
Missouri just isn’t the team to slow any of that down. Texas wins this one pretty comfortably.
Prediction: Texas takes the series
Tennessee at Oklahoma
This one is genuinely hard for me, as well.
I love what Tennessee’s rotation can do. Kuhns just put up one of the best starts of the entire season last weekend. That staff can shut anyone down.
But Oklahoma at home is a different team. Skip Johnson will have his guys ready and scrappy and fighting. LJ Mercurius keeps struggling and Cam Johnson has been up and down, and Cord Rager is the same — so there are real questions in that rotation. But this is still a solid team with a lot of fight left in them.
Home field, tournament energy, and a coaching staff that knows how to prepare — I’m going Oklahoma.
Prediction: Oklahoma takes the series at home
Weekend Picks
Kentucky over Arkansas
Auburn over Georgia
Vanderbilt over South Carolina
Ole Miss over Alabama
Mississippi State over Texas A&M
Florida over LSU
Texas over Missouri
Oklahoma over Tennessee
Last regular season weekend. A lot of these teams are already locked into where they’re going — but pride, momentum, and rotation management heading into the SEC Tournament make every one of these series worth watching.
Should be a great final weekend of the regular season.